Just Like in Gaza, Israel Is Spiraling Into War With Hezbollah Without a Strategy or Clear Goals
A long, detailed and precise list – maybe too precise – was published Wednesday in the Al-Akhbar newspaper, associated with Hezbollah, regarding the generous aid Hezbollah provided and is providing to the citizens of southern Lebanon.
It includes 288,617 portions of food; 79,906 monthly cash stipends to families "standing strong," meaning those who have remained in the villages in southern Lebanon and displaced families; assistance to find shelter for 25,784 individuals whose homes were destroyed; 3,188 rent allocations; assistance to 6,171 families for the purchase of home furnishings; 4,604 compensation grants to owners of homes that were destroyed – and on and on in complete detail that includes dozens of items that it doesn't forget to note because, in contrast with the situation in the Second Lebanon War in 2006, this time Hezbollah isn't waiting until the war ends.
The organization is working "to fill the familiar and common void that the government and its institutions and local and international aid organizations have left."
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Granted that the article is part of a public opinion campaign that Hezbollah is conducting in Lebanon in the face of the public and political criticism that it has come in for over the war, but it also isn't divorced from what the organization reads and hears about what's happening in Israel – the frustration and despair of about 100,000 Israeli citizens who can't return to their homes and an Israeli government that isn't doing enough to help the Israeli families who are "standing strong," or who have been uprooted from their own homes.
Rockets fired from southern Lebanon are intercepted by Israel's Iron Dome air defense system in northern Israel, last month.Credit: AFP
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has framed the situation of tens of thousands of Israelis as an aspect of his organization's victory in its campaign against Israel, just as he presents his busying the Israeli army on Israel's northern border as a primary aspect of Hezbollah's contribution to "the unity of fronts" of a sort that purportedly reduces the pressure on Gaza.
It's doubtful that residents of southern Lebanon or those who have been uprooted from their homes derive satisfaction from the attention and generous assistance that the organization has been bestowing on them or from the comparison between their situation and that of Israelis.
Nasrallah may have promised the residents of his country's south that following the conclusion of "the revenge operation" carried out in response to Israel's assassination of Hezbollah's Fuad Shukr, they could safely return to their homes, but they are having trouble squaring the invitation to go back home with the continuing attacks by Israel Air Force planes. For the time being, like the Lebanese government, other countries in the region and the United States, they understand that it doesn't look like this war is ending soon, and all of the sides involved are beginning to plan for "the wide-scale war."
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In Lebanon, they are looking with major concern at "the signs indicating" the appearance in the near future of such a war. Beyond the aggressive declarations coming from Israel and the warnings that the Biden administration is issuing to the Lebanese government regarding Israel's intentions, the intensity of the Israeli attacksis growing and the geographic area that has been hit, mainly villages in the south and the vicinity of the city of Tyre, is being interpreted as an Israeli intention to create a "separation strip" between southern Lebanon and the Litani River further north.
In Lebanon, there are also reports about massive strikes on dense areas of woodland around Tyre, where it is suspected that medium- and long-range missile batteries are located. In Lebanon, that assault is being interpreted as intent to prepare the ground for a wide-scale assault.
The graves of killed Hezbollah fighters at the al-Hawra Zeinab cemetery in a southern suburb of Beirut, Lebanon, in September.Credit: Bilal Hussein/AP
Lebanese and other Arab commentators say the major attack during the night between Sunday and Monday in Syria, in which 16 people were killed, included three rounds of attacks, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, and was directed mainly at "the scientific research center" near the city of Hama, is an indication of Israel's intent to go beyond a limited attack on a military site that had been hit several times in the past. On Wednesday, it was again Al Akhbar that presented the original theory that Israel plans to invade Lebanon's Bekaa Valley via Syria to cut the valley off from southern Lebanon.
It also reported that "officials in Lebanon" have already checked with leaders of rebel Syrian groups who are in Europe over whether the rebels would cooperate with Israel against Hezbollah or refrain from such a step. According to Al-Akhbar, there was division in their stances.
It's doubtful that such an option would have been seriously examined, but the fact that it was actually reported by a website that is closely associated with Hezbollah indicates displeasure in the organization over the fact that so far, Syria hasn't joined the "front of support" and isn't participating in the fighting. Nasrallah did in fact give Syria an "exemption" from participating in the revenge operation over Fuad Shukr's killing, but Damascus doesn't need Nasrallah's permission. It's stance, which is coordinated with Iran, relies on an analysis of Syria's interests and the threat that it would expect from involvement in the war.
At the same time, Hezbollah is still a prisoner to the dictate that the organization itself developed – that the confrontation with Israel and whether it is halted depends on developments in Gaza and a cease-fire agreement with Hamas. As long as that equation remains in effect, the diplomatic sphere of action to halt the confrontation in the north is mainly focused on conveying tough messages and open threats to both Hezbollah and Iran with the aim of reducing the areas of confrontation to prevent wide-scale war.
Lebanon's caretaker Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib speaks during an interview with Reuters in Beirut, on Monday.Credit: Mohamed Azakir / Reuters
Meanwhile, deliberations continue involving the United States, France, the Lebanese government and, indirectly, Hezbollah as well via its "proxy," the speaker of parliament, Nabih Berri, regarding plans for "the day after," most of which focus on the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 from 2006. But this week Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdullah Bou Habib amazed Lebanon's political leadership when he reported that he had spoken to "all of the sides involved in the matter over how Lebanon is prepared to conduct negotiations that are not direct with Israel on a halt to the war."
"We are speaking with all of the countries and with the Security Council over when a cease-fire is achieved and that the Security Council needs to adopt a new resolution that isn't a revised copy of Resolution 1701," Bou Habib said.
It's not clear what prompted Lebanon's foreign minister to issue his remarks, which contradict Lebanese government's ongoing position that Resolution 1701 would be implemented in full – perhaps with small amendments but without changing its substance.
Bou Habib came in for major criticism Wednesday and was quick to "clarify" that "everything that was said surrounding the adoption of a new resolution [instead of 1701] is a theoretical matter and is not a substitute for the existing resolution. But we are always open to conducting positive dialogue with all of our partners in the framework of out principles and our internal consensus."
Members of the United Nations Interim Forces in Lebanon (UNIFIL) rest next to an armed vehicle near the southern Lebanese village of Markaba on November 24, 2023.Credit: - - AFP
Principles and internal points of agreement in Lebanon are also a "theoretical matter," but the foreign minister's remarks don't appear to rely only on "theory," and stem from explanations that he received from the United States and indirectly from Israel – according to which Resolution 1701 lost its relevance in the face of Hezbollah's long-range ballistic missile threat.
The Security Council resolution from 2006 requires Hezbollah to withdraw north of the Litani River and in the process to pull back the threat of short-range missiles and of mortar shells, which cause heavy damage, but they don't eliminate the threat of long-range missiles or of drones.
The significance of this is that even if miraculously a cease-fire is reached in Gaza that would also be adopted by Hezbollah, that wouldn't be sufficient to provide a sense of security that would enable the residents of Israel's north to return to their homes. Israel's lack of a clear strategy is also apparent here that would clarify what kind of arrangement it is seeking with Lebanon and Hezbollah. Because in contrast with the destruction of Hamas or at least the elimination of its military capabilities and its civilian control in Gaza, which were stated as among the aims of the war, the elimination of Hezbollah was not set as a goal.
Israel has also not defined what the threat from Lebanon is that it is seeking to neutralize inasmuch as a large portion of the threat would continue to exist even if Resolution 1701 is implemented.
Does Israel share the Lebanese foreign minister's "theoretical" position that a new kind of agreement should be sought and a new Security Council resolution?
It appears that, as in Gaza, Israel is preparing itself for a war in Lebanon without having a strategy or clear policy regarding what it wishes to achieve with it.